Riyadh is catching political fever these days. Visitors come and go, sometimes singly, but oftentimes in throngs. For sometime now the Saudis stopped the small talks about house cleaning and domestic renovations, such as women driving cars and letting down their veils. For the last few weeks you hear only big talks about regional and international politics, and what the Saudis would do, and whether they could, to refurbish the crumbling world on their backyard before the debris starts falling in their living room.

Saudi politics have always had this broad perspective, though most of the time it is too subtle and too covert to be noticed. Discretion and modesty are not only political expediencies in Arabia, they are also cultural values. However, it is getting to be harder and harder not to take note of the accelerated and intense political activities taking place in Riyadh these days, activities culminating in the Arab summit this week. For the first time in recent history an Arab summit is held in Saudi Arabia. The compass for Arab consensus seems to be gradually shifting away from Cairo and pointing towards Riyadh. Everybody here is holding their breath in suspense, hoping and praying that this big bite we are taking this time is not more than we can swallow.

The Saudis have been fairly successful in tackling some rather thorny issues, the last of which being the accord between Hamas and Fatah and the establishment of a Palestinian national unity government. As a mediator and peace broker, Saudi Arabia has some advantages over Egypt. Despite its close ties with the US, it is free from the fetters of American foreign aid, which has been limiting to Egyptian maneuverability and free movement. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia has the financial resources to bankroll any accord it mediates.

As for the Arab summit just starting in Riyadh, the story is a little different. The challenges are somewhat insurmountable and the circumstances are not all that favorable. The Arab voice has never been so discordant and so week. The governments are loosing grip on their population and their international weight is very light. In countries like Lebanon, Iraq and Sudan, the sectarian divisions, demographic composition and ethnic makeup are inherently self-destructive. Political stability in countries like Iraq has never been achieved except under ruthless totalitarian regimes, from al-Hajjaj b. Yusuf of the 7^th century till Saddam Hussein. It takes strong government with strong will and fat budget to establish internal peace and stability, but such essential ingredients are dearly lacking in most Arab countries. Even quick fixes in the form of charismatic leaders with relevant ideologies and appealing rhetoric are nowhere to be found lately. When you see buffoons like Qaddafi of Libya or see Asad of Syria you simply shut the TV in disgust and dismay. The ‘Arab house’ is in shambles. Things have gotten to the point where the most people could hope for is that their leaders come out of their summits united with one voice and not to throw china plates at one another in their closed sessions.

The international arena is no more reassuring. The Arabs cannot solve their problems without the help and cooperation of the international community. Actually, Israel and the USA hold the keys to solving most of these problems. But the only way to describe Israel’s policy towards the Arabs is that it is neurotic and paranoid. The US is selfish and arrogant. Both want to take but not give and both are trigger-happy. What makes things even worse, leadership in both countries has never been so weak. Gallop polls and street demonstrations show that the popularity of Bush and Olmert is very near the rock bottom, locally and internationally, which make them both too paralyzed to make any positive move in response to whatever gestures come out of the summit. Furthermore, America is spreading itself too thin and its hands are full with problems in Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran and North Korea. The American administration is hopelessly divided over both Iran and Iraq. The Americans are about to go into their usual ritual of presidential elections, which would practically tie down the hands of the administration for many months to come.

On the other hand, Olmert’s government is riddled with charges of sexual scandals and financial corruptions, not to mention the failure in Lebanon. The worst fear of the Arabs is for Benyamin Natanyaho to take the leadership seat in Israel, another bulldozer, but a very reckless and dangerous one with no breaks, no horn, and no driving wheel. More acceptable would be the foreign minister Tzipi Livni, who has a comfortable 30% approval rate in public polls and who have been spotted sitting and talking with some moderate Palestinians. Livni, along with Olmert, are sending some positive, though very faint signals regarding the Arab piece initiative, perhaps with a strong nudge from the USA. There are even rumors circulating here and there that the Saudis are in contact with the Israelis, most likely through third party liaison, regarding the Arab piece initiative, and it is said that this is motivated by the joint fear of both countries from the rising Iranian threat. It is worth noting that this is the second piece initiative offered by the Saudis to the Israelis, the first was submitted by late king Fahad to the Fez summit in 1982. That initiative is substantially the same as the one submitted to the Beirut summit in 2002, which is back on the table for this summit. The most difficult clause for Israelis to endorse is the clause demanding right of return for the Palestinian refugees. This would turn Jews into a minority in Israel. It is true that Bush committed himself to a two states solution to the problem, but he also promised Sharon that he will commit the US to Israel position regarding Jerusalem, the borders, and refugees.

Despite all these and other hurdles, Arabs can, with some imagination and determination, figure out ways and means to make this summit reasonably successful by capitalizing on positive signs here and there and looking for windows of opportunity in the international arena, and there are some.

The very troubles that are haunting the US in the region and paralyzing its government could provide the Arabs with some leverage to push for their peace initiative. Both Israel and the US are exhausted and they are willing to listen to what the Arabs have to say; there are mixed signals and test balloons coming from both sides. During the last conference in Baghdad, the Americans managed to swallow their pride and sat next to both Syria and Iran. They even sent high-ranking officials to Damascus. Instead of isolating Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hezbullah, the US is beginning to feel itself being isolated. Its popularity in the region, according to the polls, is at its lowest since the 50’s. The Europeans are now talking earnestly with Syria and they are filing one country after the other at the door of the Palestinian authority. For the US, the issues of both Palestine and Lebanon have run their course and time has come for a solution. This could help pull the Arabs away from Iran. The last meeting Condaleezza Rice had with the Arab quartet last week was meant, it seems, to coordinate positions before the summit. It is significant that the UN secretary also visited the region at the end of last week.

The recent flirtation between Saad Hariri and Nabieh Barri strongly suggests that the Lebanese issue is back on the front burner and hopefully a solution will be served at this summit. The last meeting between King Abdullah and Ahmadinajad may have initiated and smoothed the way for this process. In addition, Javier Solana has been to Syria with a pocket full of tantalizing incentives to encourage it to cooperate in this matter.

Ironically, this bad situation the Arabs see themselves in could work out to their advantage, if only they knew how to deal their cards this time. Both Iran and the US need the Arabs now. Politics is not just hard work. More than that, it is a delicate act of balancing your gains and losses and a fine art of seizing opportunities when they come your way. If Arab governments only would take time out of oppressing their people and squandering their national wealth to pay more attention to tackling the real challenges and dealing with the real problems facing them. The crux of the problem is that the Arab people are absolutely powerless and they can do nothing but wait and see what their governments will do for them. This summit is a real test for Arab governments and for Saudi diplomacy.